Manchester City's Champions League future is suddenly a live question, and not because of anything happening on the pitch.

An independent commission has ruled against the club on 114 of 115 Premier League financial charges covering 2009–10 to 2017–18. City deny wrongdoing and have appealed. The threat of a heavy points deduction, or relegation to the Championship, is no longer a hypothetical.

On the field, Enzo Maresca's side have started the season with seven wins from eight, unbeaten in the league and sitting top of the table. They are also competing in the Champions League, with realistic designs on a second title.

Bookmakers, though, have taken note. City's relegation odds have been slashed across football betting sites, with the club now at 6/4 to go down — shorter than Ipswich Town and Fulham. The market is treating the threat seriously even while the table says otherwise.

Holders' route back

There is a quirk in the regulations that offers City a path back to Europe's elite competition regardless of their domestic fate. Win the Champions League this season and they automatically qualify for next year's edition as holders, no matter where they finish in the Premier League or whether they are relegated.

They would still need to satisfy UEFA's entry and licensing rules, but the holder's exemption is written into the competition's framework.

That route is not straightforward. Maresca's league phase includes defending champions Paris Saint-Germain and La Liga winners Barcelona before any thoughts turn to Madrid next June.

No precedent

No Championship side has ever played in the Champions League. English clubs have competed in Europe while outside the top flight — Ipswich, Millwall, Birmingham, Wigan, Sunderland, Southampton and West Ham have all done it, usually by winning the FA Cup — but the Champions League is a different matter.

The EFL is under no obligation to accept City as a new member if they are relegated. If the EFL refused, City could in theory be forced further down the pyramid, potentially into the National League. That is the extreme scenario, but it is no longer entirely fanciful.

There are reportedly no relegation clauses in players' contracts, meaning the club would have to dramatically cut costs and be forced to sell their star men. It is hard to imagine Erling Haaland, Gianluigi Donnarumma or Ruben Dias sticking around for weekly football in the Championship.

Maresca, at least, has the experience: he guided Leicester City to the Championship title and knows what it takes to get out of the second tier.

For now, City can still play in the Champions League this season while their financial case is being dealt with. There is no confirmed decision to take their 2023 trophy away, and the Premier League case does not automatically put that Istanbul triumph at risk. The 1-0 win over Inter Milan and the treble remain on the record.

The appeal will take time. The odds suggest the market is not waiting.